2018 - Robert's botantical adventures in Northern California

[Robert]

Water is still flowing in the South Fork of the Rubicon River.



It is nice to see water flowing again in Lyons Creek. Today I remembered to check the water temperature, 50.1 F, 10.1 C. Over at the South Fork of Silver Creek I recorded a similar water temperature, 49.9 F, 9.9 C. One of these days I will get a soil temperature, soil moisture content data recorder setup in this area. The data will most likely be very revealing.

Weather roundup for Lyons Creek, 12 October 2018:

High: 58 F, 14.4 C
Low: 38 F, 3.3 C
Relative Humidity: 38%
Dew Point: 27 F, -2.8 C
Wind: East 6G14 mph
There was 0.10 inches, 2.5 mm of precipitation from the storm on 10 October. The season total now stands at 1.81 inches, 46.0 mm.

Weather forecasting is fun.    I am still working on my micro/mesoscale forecasting skills. The Skew –T charts are extremely useful. Based on the 12Z Oakland and Reno radiosonde data it appears like it will be a cool evening in the Lyons Creek Basin. In addition, this evening the surface winds have decoupled from the 500 mb. upper airflow and are nearly calm. Based on the radiosonde data, my own crude estimates based on the temperature changes observed on the car thermometer and altitude readings from my GPS, the dry adiabatic lapse rate is indicative of a stable lower level atmosphere. There may be some mixing near the boundary layer of the NE 500 mb flow. I expect low temperatures in the Lyons Creek Basin to be in the 26 to 29 F range tonight. I expect similar high temperatures tomorrow in the Lyons Creek Basin, 58 to 61 F.

On the larger synoptic scale I see no rain in the next 7 days. I watch the 500 mb and surface charts from the northeastern Pacific closely. It appears that California will remain under a northern air flow, more or less, during this time period. The only questions are how strong the surface winds might be, and how cold the nights will be. Daytime high temperatures will be above average.



Slowly many species are starting to show good autumn leaf color. Cornus sericea ssp. sericea is starting to turn red. At lower elevations the leaves of Cornus nuttallii are also turning nice crimson shades.



A close up view of Cornus sericea ssp. serciea with it reddish autumn leaves.



The Quaking Aspens, Populus tremuloides, are starting to look great. This specimen a bit unusual with orange-red leaves. Most often Aspens are seen with bright golden yellow autumn foliage.

With the help of God I will be able to get out again soon and record some of the autumn colors in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

[Robert]

13 October 2018

I had a few hours in the Sierra Nevada yesterday, 13 October.



It was a beautiful day to be in the mountains, even if it was only for a short time.

The weather this October is very similar to October of last year. Early in the month we had some cool temperatures and a bit of rainfall. Other than that, temperatures have been well above average for this time of year and very similar to the warm dry conditions that prevailed last October.



The autumn leaf colors have been very slow to develop this year. Pacific Dogwood, Cornus nuttallii, can have wonderful red autumn foliage. One can see that this tree is uncertain which direction to go (both red and green leaves). Many trees are still undecided if they want to go dormant.



Ribes roezlii var. roezlii can have very nice autumn foliage. The red fruits are also attractive if the wildlife leaves any.



Most California Black Oak, Quercus kelloggii, have leaves that turn yellow in the autumn. I always note trees that have red autumn leaves.

[Robert]

Except for the deer hunters, the high country is very quiet and peaceful this time of year. This is a nice scene of Wilson Meadow.



The water is still flowing in Lyons Creek. I was very pleased to get the weather forecast correct for the Lyons Creek Basin, 13 October, High 62 F, 16.7 C and Low 27 F, -2.8 C.

The nighttime low temperatures have been very mild throughout the region this October. On 12 October of last year I recorded 19 F, -7.2 C in the Lyons Creek Basin. So far to date, 27 F, -2.8 C, is the lowest temperature I have recorded in the Basin. I am sure the temperature was below 27 F last night. I hope to check the data loggers tomorrow and find out. There may have been 0 C on at the Peavine Ridge site too.



Many of the Aspen, Populus tremuloides, are looking great at this time.



Another nice looking Aspen.



The bark on Aspen is also very beautiful.

[Robert]

The structure of the rocks can be very interesting and beautiful. Much of the yellow lichens on this rock outcropping are a Rhizocarpon species. They are very common on rocks in this part of the Sierra Nevada. Sometimes large rock faces are colored yellow-green with the Rhizocarpon lichens. One of these days I will spot test the lichens to determine them to the species level.



In this scene one can see the deciduous trees starting to turn color on the far slope.



In the foreground are California Black Oaks, Quercus kelloggii, with a hint of color.



On the far ridge, there is a stand of Quaking Aspen, Populus tremuloides that has turned bright golden yellow.

There is also one tiny convective cloud! The cloudy and stormy weather is down in Southern California. A bit of moisture trickled into our area. It was not much, as the cloud disappeared almost as quickly as it formed.



The nascent inflorescences of Greenleaf Manzanita, Arctostaphylos patula, are so very beautiful.

At the time of this writing, we are experiencing a strong dry north wind event. Gust of over 20 mph were recorded in the Sacramento area this afternoon. Since then the wind speeds have increased considerably. The pressure gradient has increased. I checked the 850 mb winds and it appears we will continue to experience strong winds for the next 20 hours or so.

With this, I will sign off.

[Robert]

15 October 2018

I was a beautiful day in the Sierra Nevada yesterday. It was still a bit breezy at times, however the most intense wind gust abated before dawn. Autumn is finally arriving with nice autumn leaf colors and cool nights.

The water levels on both the South Fork of Silver Creek and Lyons Creek are beginning to fall again. I checked the check dam at Wrights Lake (pictured) and found that the drainpipe had been turned off. This partly explains the dropping water level on the South Fork of Silver Creek. The dry weather since the last storm also accounts for the drop in the stream flow too. Monitoring the moisture content in the soil in some key locations could be very revealing.

The water temperatures in both streams is falling quickly:

Lyons Creek
12 Oct. 50.1 F   10.1 C
15 Oct. 46.0 F    7.8 C
   -4.1 F      -2.3 C

South Fork of Silver Creek
12 Oct. 49.8 F   9.9 C
15 Oct. 46.5 F   8.1 C
   -3.3 F      -1.7 C

The mild weather will continue for the next 7 days or so. In the high country, on the western slope of the Crystal Range there will be clear skies with warm days and cool night. The afternoon breezes will lighten as the week progresses. Expect high temperatures in the Lyons Creek Basin to be 57 to 63 F and lows 25 to 22 F. The first few days in the forecast period will still be a bit breezy, however as the pressure gradient continues to fall, the afternoon breezes will be less gusty.



I will leave with this close up view of a Rhizocarpon lichen. They are very common in this part of the Sierra Nevada.

[Robert]

17 October 2018

It was another beautiful day in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. There has been just enough cool weather for many of the trees to have brilliant autumn leaves. From this view in the canyon of the South Fork of the American River, the colorful deciduous trees can be seen on the opposite side of the canyon.



Here is a closer view of the Big-leaf Maples, Acer macrophyllum, with their brilliant yellow autumn leaves.



The Big-leaf Maples tend to inhabit semi-shady sites near the bottom of canyons and side canyons where there is a more reliable source of subterranean moisture.



The coloring deciduous trees can be seen in the distance on Big Hill. This scene is from a higher elevation. The deciduous trees are most likely California Black Oaks, Quercus kelloggii. One can be seen in the foreground, left, starting to turn color. California Black Oaks enjoy drier terrain than Big-leaf Maple.



This is another view of the Crystal Basin. From this view, the forest appears to be a continuous stand of coniferous trees. The California Black Oaks inhabit a distinct habitat niche, generally thermal belts where temperatures tend to be higher on cold nights when there is a great deal of radiant cooling.

[Robert]

At a higher elevation is Wilson Meadow. California Black Oaks are not found at this site.



This is another view of Wilson Meadow. At this elevation Quaking Aspen, Populus tremuloides, can provide a great deal of spectacular autumn color. There are not any in the vicinity of Wilson Meadow. I did post some colorful Aspen photographs on a previous posting.



Wilson Meadow has a very distinct history. It is not one of my focused study areas, so I do not gather a lot of detailed data from this site. Wilson Meadow is easily accessible; a well-traveled and popular road follows part of its margin. The meadow ecosystem is extremely fascinating, however I gather data from smaller more remote meadows at various elevations that do not have a great deal of human activity pressure.



This view of the South Fork of Silver Creek gives the impression that there is a high volume of water flowing in the creek. This is not the case. This is just one of many standing pools of water. Along other portions of the creek the water is scarcely flowing.



The winds have slowly abated during the last 24 to 36 hours in the high country. I currently make micro scale 4-day weather forecast for various study sites on the west slope. At the Placerville farm, I have 40 years of meteorological data and experience. At this site the forecasts are generally spot-on accurate. At my study sites on the western slope of the Crystal Range my accuracy diminishes. The forecasts are a fanatic learning tool as I learn the nuances of each micro-climate and observe how various plant and animal species have adjusted to each specific site.

On a longer time frame and synoptic scale, it appears a weather pattern change will be arriving in our area. It appears that a long wave tough pattern will develop at some point next week. A period of rainfall, and maybe some high elevation snow, would be very welcome.

Stay tuned……….

[Robert]

The refraction of sunlight through high altitude ice crystals created this “rainbow” halo over our Sacramento home. The cirrus cloud deck at, + or  -, 400 mb was beautiful and a harbinger of change. It has been over 2 months since I have last been able to have an all day botanical outing. The prospects of an outing within the next 30 days have improved. In the mean time I will share some of my meteorological data.



The last portion of October has been very dry in our part of California. This photograph of the Crystal Range was taken on 31 October 2018. The mountains are very dry!



The autumn colors in the Sierra Nevada Mountains are still very nice.

Temperatures in our part of California were average for the month of October. The average temperature at our Sacramento home (23 ft) was 66.03 F, 18.91 C, 0.79 F (0.44 C) above the 10-year average. At the Placerville farm (1,460 ft) the average temperature was 60.28 F, 15.71 C, 0.76 F (0.42 C) below the 35-year average.



The autumn colors will not last long at the higher elevations. The leaves are quickly dropping on this California Black Oak, Quercus kelloggii.

October was a very dry month. Except for some precipitation during the first week of October, there was no precipitation for the remaining portion of the month.



As of 31 October 2018, Lessingia leptoclada is still blooming in portions of the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

The weather highlight for the month of October was the weather event of October 10 and 11 on the western slope of the Crystal Range. I was in the mountains that day and was able to watch the convective clouds build and calculate the CCL (Convection Condensation Level, different from the LCL), based on the surface temperature and dew point. At 1:00 p.m., from visual observation, the afternoon the cumulus buildups showed no signs of an atmospheric cap. The clouds could have dissipated, however over the next hour conditions changed rapidly.

[Robert]

Some specimens of Salix scouleriana have excellent autumn leaf color. This Salix species grows in much drier environments than most of our other California native Salix species.

12 hours earlier a cold front moved through the backside of the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains. The trailing portion of the front most likely became stationary over the Crystal Range. The convective clouds I was observing quickly converged, as mesoscale cyclogenesis appeared to be occurring. Within less than an hour it was raining! I wish that I had weather stations set up surrounding this region to record barometric pressure and wind speed and direction. This would have been extremely helpful to confirm my hypothesis. As the rain stated to fall, within a few minutes small pea-sized hail began to fall. From the hail size I was able to calculate the updraft speed within the storm cell and make a crude guess of the CAPE value (Convective Available Potential Energy). Observing this storm was fun!



The autumn leaves of Drymocallis glandulosa var. glandulosa can be very attractive.

Although precipitation amounts were light, the storm persisted into the following morning, 11 October. This was further evidence that my hypothesis of mesoscale cyclogenesis was based on sound field observations.



The flow of Lyons Creek has become discontinuous again. Although there is still a fair amount of water in the channel, in places the creek is no longer flowing on the surface. It will not be long until freeze-up occurs. The water temperature was 39.4 F (4.1 C).



The plants in the Lyons Creek Basin are dormant and ready for winter. Nighttime low temperatures have been ranging from 20 F to 30 F (-6.7 C to -1.1 C). The nighttime temperatures will continue to fall as winter approaches.



Greenleaf Manzanita, Arctostaphylos patula, is also ready for winter. I enjoy the nascent inflorescences of Manzanita species.

[Robert]

This is another forest scene from the Lyons Creek Basin. This is a great time of year to be in the Sierra Nevada Mountain. Hunting season is over and it is extremely quiet.



The dried fronds of Braken Fern, Pteridium aquilinum var. pubescens, carpet the forest floor in places.



In some locations the canyon sides are very beautiful.



With good fortune, the mountains in this area will soon be covered with snow.

[Robert]

Dry warm weather continues to prevail in our part of Northern California. Temperatures have been running about 8 F (4.4 C) above average for this time of year, however the high temperatures are still well below record levels.



Gerle Creek has a good flow of water. Most of the other small creeks and rivers in the Crystal Basin are running very low or are almost dry.



This is another nice view of Gerle Creek near my fathers cabin. I spent much of my childhood running around the woods in this area.

At the Placerville farm today it was 74 F (23.3 C). Even in the Sierra Nevada temperatures were running in the 70’s F. In the Lyons Creek Basin (6,400 ft, 1,951 meters) the high today was 63 F (17.3 C); the low was 27 F (-2.8 C). This is far too warm for this time of year.



Caregiving occupies much of my time right now. To keep my mind sharp I draw weather maps based on the water vapor satellite images. I started doing this when I was 12-years old (1967), minus the satellite images.



I like to write in some of the pertinent surface observations before making a detailed mesoscale weather map of our region. This is basically a good part of the subjective weather forecasting method and it works well. My 4-day forecasts are generally very accurate, even for my observation sites in the Sierra Nevada. I make some guesses at days 5 to 7, but even the GFS (a computer run forecasting model) is too often wrong.

I never look at weather forecasts these days, including those made by the NWS (National Weather Service). My wife looks at the NWS forecasts and writes them down. We make a game of it to see who comes closer to the correct forecast, the NWS, my forecasts, or my wife (my wife wants rain, so that is her forecast). So far the NWS and I are having a tie. My wife is still waiting for rain and I am hoping the rain starts soon too. There is a hint on the latest GFS 500 mb maps of a change.

At some point things will change for me too and I will be out all day in the Sierra Nevada again.

[Robert]

I have fairly good direct access to information and data concerning global climatology and global climate change (i.e. I can talk directly to climate scientists). In some fairly recent discussions, the topic of future precipitation trends in California was discussed. One theory is that future precipitation patterns will change. Northern California may receive more precipitation in the future, while Southern California may receive less. The topic of autumn rainfall trends was also discussed. It was suggested that the amount of autumn precipitation was declining, in particular the month of October. Below is a graph of October precipitation from 1985 to 2018 at our Placerville, California farm.



Series 1 is the actual precipitation amounts for each October 1985 to 2018. In series 1 there is a trend toward increasing anomalous maximum precipitation events over the 33-year time period. In series 2, the data has been analyzed using boxcar averaging. In this series it appears that these is no definitive trend in the precipitation totals over the 33-year period. When the actual precipitation numbers are analyzed a 0.20-inch decline becomes apparent. This is an 11% decline over a 33-year period. This is a significant percentage.

Before coming to conclusions, data from many additional sites in California would need to be examined. In addition, archived data over a much longer period of time needs to be analyzed, however my data suggests that October rainfall is declining, especially over the 33-year period 1985 to 2018.

Fun!   

[Robert]

There is not much I can report on out in the field at this time.

My 4-day weather forecasts for the western slope of the Crystal Range from our Sacramento home to the Lyons Creek Basin may be entertaining. Today, I will post Sacramento and the Lyons Creek Basin forecast, tomorrow Placerville and Peavine Ridge.

Monday, 5 November 2018, 1600 UTC

Sacramento (home near Sacramento River), 23 feet
Monday, High: 79 F, Low: 50 F
Wind: NW 5-10
Periods of high clouds

Tuesday, High: 79 F, Low: 50 F
Wind: NW 8-12
Periods of high clouds

Wednesday, High: 81 F, Low: 52 F
Wind: NW 5-10
Periods of high clouds

Thursday, High: 80 F, Low 52 F
Winds: NW 8-12
Periods of high clouds

Lyons Creek Basin, 6,622 feet

Monday, High: 60 F, Low: 25 F
Winds: NE 4-7
Periods of high clouds

Tuesday, High: 60 F, Low 25 F
Winds: NW 8 -12
Periods of high clouds

Wednesday, High 62 F, Low 27 F
Winds: NE 4-7
Periods of high clouds

Thursday, High 61 F, Low 27 F
Winds: NW 8-12
Periods of high clouds

The 4-day period will be dominated by a northwestern upper air flow with periods of high level moisture advection. During day 3 and 4 the upper level high-pressure axis will slowly center over the state bringing slightly warmer temperatures. There will be periods of gusty northerly winds as the surface pressure gradient remains somewhat high and there are periods of 500 mb jet support.

About day 7, there is a hint of a weather change that may bring an increased chance of precipitation to our area.

[Robert]

Today’s 4-day weather forecasts for Placerville (farm) and Peavine Ridge, California.

Updated Tuesday, 5 November 2018, 1400 UTC

Placerville (farm), 1,460 feet

Tuesday, High: 74 F, Low: 37 F
Wind: NW 8-12
Periods of high clouds

Wednesday, High: 75 F, Low: 37 F
Wind: NW 4-7
Periods of high clouds

Thursday, High: 76 F, Low 39 F
Winds: NW 8-12
Periods of high clouds

Friday, High: 75 F, Low: 39 F
Wind: SW 2-5
Periods of high clouds



Peavine Ridge, 5,124 feet

Tuesday, High: 72 F, Low 32 F
Winds: NW 8 -12
Periods of high clouds

Wednesday, High 73 F, Low 34 F
Winds: SW 5-10
Periods of high clouds

Thursday, High 73 F, Low 35 F
Winds: N 8-12
Periods of high clouds

Friday, High: 73 F, Low: 35 F
Winds: SW 8-12
Periods of high clouds

[Robert]

I have made a few adjustments to the 5 November, 1600 UTC forecasts for Sacramento and the Lyons Creek Basin. I have adjusted the high temperature range down a few degrees.

The 5 November 1400 UTC forecasts for Placerville and Peavine Ridge still looks good.

If I get feedback that the forecasts are of interest I will keep posting them as I can (maybe once a week or so). Ideally I update the forecasts twice a day, but once a day is most often what is realistic. I do have to work and do other things, although weather forecasting might be an interesting paying job for me. With hazardous weather I monitor the situation every hour. Yes, I sleep!     So needless to say, I am not checking the weather a night while I sleep. That would be something if I could!