Robert’s Crystal Range Project – Year 2, 2020

[Robert]

Interesting Robert!

Do you use only "fresh data" in your model or do you also use historic data and old statistics?

Trond,

It is my understanding that statistical averaging is most commonly used to forecast seasonal outlooks – out 30 days or more – at least here in the U.S.A. I do not use this method. I use an average as a starting point and then use inputs (questions) to derive rates of change with upper and lower limits. The upper and lower limits need to be within reasonable statistical parameters, however I am not using statistical averages to determine the rate of change.

[Robert]

Robert-- how humid is humid for you? Humidity is usually quite high here-- 50% to 70.80. often, and usually at 100% in the wee hours-dew in summer, frost in the colder seasons, more days than not. Of course when it is not really hot, it is less of an issue-- though there are usually a few sticky hours on warm afternoons.

Cohan,

You raise some interesting inquiries. I do have some answers. I will get back to this shortly.

[Robert]

The local natives ( Mapuches) viewed it and if there were clouds gathering around the summit, that meant invariable foul weather the next 24/48 hours. The shape of the clouds could indicate just a windstorm. Locally lenticular clouds (lentil shaped) indicate with about 24 hours notice  imminent windstorms. Windstorms are mostly from the west, north-west. .
Arturo

Arturo,

I get very excited when I see lenticular clouds, or cloud formations created by gravitational waves. I guess I am just some sort of science nerd.    Yes, lenticular clouds are generally formed when a stable air mass is forced over mountains, generally by strong winds. When the air mass is forced over the mountains the air parcels reach the LCL near the crest and cloud formation takes place. When the air parcels sink after crossing the mountains a wave pattern is frequently created (gravitational waves). Parallel rows of clouds are frequently seen as the air parcels reach the LCL at the crest of each wave. Sometimes other clouds formations can be seen from the turbulence created on the lee side of the mountains. This is very cool stuff.    The neighbors think that I am crazy when I point out and get excited about cloud formations crated by gravitational waves.    Thank you for sharing.

[Robert]

Cohan,

I looked over the data from my data recorder at our Sacramento home. These are some relative humidity, temperature, and dew point readings from 17 and 18 August:

17th - 2:00 pm RH 31%, T 101 F (38.3 C), T_d 65 F (18.3 C)
          5:00 pm RH 37%, T 96 F (35.6 C), T_d 65 F (18.3 C)
          Midnight RH 46%, T 85 F (29.4 C), T_d 62F (16.7 C)

18th - 3:00 pm RH 31%, T 102 F (38.9 C), T_d 65 F (18.3 C)
          5:00 pm RH 34%, T 100 F (37.8 C), T_d 67 F (19.4 C)

If you are interested, you can use the Ideal Gas Equation, plus or minus, some other calculations to determine the exact amount of water vapor in the air, but this does not make sleeping in this type of weather any easier. 

[cohan]

Cohan,

I looked over the data from my data recorder at our Sacramento home. These are some relative humidity, temperature, and dew point readings from 17 and 18 August:

17th - 2:00 pm RH 31%, T 101 F (38.3 C), T_d 65 F (18.3 C)
          5:00 pm RH 37%, T 96 F (35.6 C), T_d 65 F (18.3 C)
          Midnight RH 46%, T 85 F (29.4 C), T_d 62F (16.7 C)

18th - 3:00 pm RH 31%, T 102 F (38.9 C), T_d 65 F (18.3 C)
          5:00 pm RH 34%, T 100 F (37.8 C), T_d 67 F (19.4 C)

If you are interested, you can use the Ideal Gas Equation, plus or minus, some other calculations to determine the exact amount of water vapor in the air, but this does not make sleeping in this type of weather any easier. 

Those are some warm temperatures for night-- wouldn't take much humidity to further reduce the body's ability to cool off Today is supposed to be mostly cloudy, this morning was cool and windy, only around 16C/60F at noon... we've had frost warnings and I'll need to start cutting firewood very soon- though some drier weather would help.. (I usually like to wait till most of the wasps have died off, to minimise the risk of disturbing nests when dropping dead trees or moving fallen ones!though they weren't numerous this year...)

[hamparstum]

cohan, I wonder if by any chance you are talking about Vespula germanica ( the yellow jacket) which has been introduced here a century ago and have become a real nuisance here specially the latter part of summer and all autumn until hard frosts kill adults. I'm also curious if anyone has found climate correlates with these varmints. We have years when they are more plentiful.
Arturo

[cohan]

Hi Arturo-- I'm no expert on the species, but we have a number, all natives as far as I know (here is one reference: http://www.insectsofalberta.com/wasps.htm we have for sure the big bald faced hornets, and one, probably more species of yellow jackets, since we have both ground and arboreal dwellers, besides many types of tiny -even inconspicuous wasps), and I do not consider any of them to be pests here, since they are natural to this environment, and do important work in controlling other insects, pollinating etc. I don't find any of them to be aggressive or bothersome, I think people who are trying to eat outdoors have more problems, or sitting about with sweet beverages that the wasps like--I don't generally do those things, other than eating berries and fruit when it is ripe- but that does not involve having the food stationary to attract wasps, and my coffee or tea is in a thermos with little or no sweetener, and not sitting open...lol I also feel (based on people complaining) that wasps may be more aggressive in urban settings-- something to with territories or population pressures? Last year (year before?) we had a dryish/warm spell in mid to late summer and a terrific population of wasps, bees, etc-- you could hear a buzzing just going into the yard in many places, without really seeing anything particular. I had water out for birds, and I always make sure to have sticks/stones etc in the water so insects can also use it and get out, but I felt I needed more for the insects at that time. I put flat bucket lids on the ground in a few places near garden beds, and put water on them when I was outside-- this was very shallow, so the insects could take water and walk back out, no risk of drowning. These lids were very busy in that weather, bees, butterflies, but wasps above all. At times I was kneeling on the ground weeding rock gardens, with a lid right by my feet, I was never bothered by the wasps which were there in good numbers.
In this climate, there are absolutely weather correlations to population, I don't know if there are also other factors involved, but they definitely prefer warmer, drier years-- I would guess that may be especially important early in the year when colonies are establishing, but it may be important later on too.
When I mention being hesitant to disturb nests, that is obviously when they could be upset-- the only times I have been stung since moving back in 2007 were once when I surprised a nest in a hole in the ground , and once when I moved an old lawn mower that I did not realise had a nest under! I was only stung once or twice each time, they did not pursue very far.. I've been more careful since then

[Hoy]

Cohan,

I thought you were afraid of disturbing the nests of solitary wasps! Not afraid of being stung of course but afraid of killing their larvae.


Arturo,

Vespula germanica wasn't seen in Norway for many decades. Now it is back but I haven't heard people are bothered by it - not more than by other stinging wasps.


Robert,

I think I wouldn't have slept much with night temperatures above 20C! When we had close to 30C at daytime (18-20 at night) earlier this summer I was glad I could just take a bath in the sea when I wanted! (The sea was 20-22C)

[Robert]

Trond,

Right now our main issue is the thick smoke - day and night, day-after-day.    The smoke impacts the garden plants. For example, the pole beans are covered with spider mites. I think that there are more spider mites than foliage. Beans are not the only plants impacted by the smoke. I see no end to the smoke and hot weather appears to be pending. Maybe we can get some of the rain that David Nicholson wrote about in his recent posting. It would be welcome here and would help put out the forest fires.

[cohan]

Cohan,
I thought you were afraid of disturbing the nests of solitary wasps! Not afraid of being stung of course but afraid of killing their larvae.

It is always a concern when digging especially in piles of soil or other materials, that I might be disturbing some creatures, but nearly impossible to predict I do now try to finish any soil work before it gets very cold, since I have occasionally run into hibernating frogs-- I try to put them back, but who knows if I get it right? so I try to be done earlier...

[cohan]

Trond,

Right now our main issue is the thick smoke - day and night, day-after-day.    The smoke impacts the garden plants. For example, the pole beans are covered with spider mites. I think that there are more spider mites than foliage. Beans are not the only plants impacted by the smoke. I see no end to the smoke and hot weather appears to be pending. Maybe we can get some of the rain that David Nicholson wrote about in his recent posting. It would be welcome here and would help put out the forest fires.

Must be tough to have that much smoke on an ongoing basis! We've had some very smoky spells in recent years with fires in Alberta and B.C. though nowhere near, but I don't think any lasted so long as to have a major impact on plants! This year was wet in much of AB and B.C. so there has been no smoke to date... I guess there are some fires now in B.C...

[Robert]

This is my first day out in the field in many weeks. The smoke is not too bad here in the higher terrain. I just checked the data logger. 66 F at 8 am on Peavine Ridge, elevation 5,125 feet. It is so very dry this season. Most of the plant ID is via dried remains. I will be off to Lyons Creek after finishing my work here on Peavine Ridge.

[Hoy]

Robert,

Hope you get some decent rain soon but it doesn't look like you will for a while. We have been spared wildfires this summer as July mostly have been wet. Most glaciers have gained mass this summer, the first time for many, many years. What has fallen as rain in the lowland has fallen as snow at the peaks and highest parts of the glaciers.

[Robert]

Hi Trond,

We had one fairly smoke free day two days ago (27 August), now the sky is filled with dense smoke again. I heard that this August has been the warmest on record. My records do not indicate this, but still this August has been very warm with well above average temperatures, both high and low temperatures.

Traditionally cooler weather arrives about 15 September. The rainfall season traditionally gets started on average about 15 October. Cooler temperatures will be welcome and clearly some rainfall, minus any thunderstorm activity (the lightning just starts more wildfires).

I have some nice photographs from my last outing. Right now work is demanding, however I will get the photographs labeled and some posted soon enough.

[Robert]

Northern California has been experiencing day-after-day of dense smoke. Stagnant, hot, and dry conditions are persisting as we move into our late summer early autumn weather pattern. Typical for this time of year, the K-index is frequently negative indicating the generally dry state of the atmosphere. In addition, I recorded the second highest average monthly temperature for the month of August at 78.26 F (25.7 C). The record was set in 1986 at 79.80 F (26.6 C). Most likely the dense smoke reduced daytime high temperatures enough to avoid a new high temperature record for the month of August.

On Wednesday of last week I was fortunate to have somewhat smoke free conditions when I visited the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Typical for this time of year conditions were extremely dry in most locations. The relatively dry precipitation pattern this past winter-spring and the continuing trend toward fewer snow cover days each winter has intensified the stress on the mountain ecosystems. Precipitation was approximately 84% of average this past season and the number of snow cover days were 88% of average.



This time of year I spend much of my time examining dried plant remains. For me this is a very interesting process and can reveal a great deal of information about each species. In this photograph, the two specimens of Eriogonum prattenianum var. prattenianum are still in leaf.  The dried remains of Elymus multisetus can be seen rising through and around the Eriogonum. In addition, there are many dried remains of the native annual Navarretia prolifera ssp. lutea.



Eriogonum prattenianum var. prattenianum is a xeric species with striking gray foliage.



The foliage of Arctostaphylos mewukka ssp. mewukka can vary in color from gray-green to a very intense silvery gray. The large berries of this species are noteworthy.



Pictured are the dried remains of Viola purpurea spp. integrifolia.