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Plants, Ecosystems, Climate – Northern California

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Hoy:
The weather here has turned rather cold. After a summer and early fall with well above normal temperatures we are now in a cold spell. I can't remember the last time we had that cold weather for so many weeks at this time of the year. It is expected to last a couple weeks more. In the north they have gotten loads of snow, much more than normal. Seems a La Niña pattern leads to cold weather here, I have seen it before.

Interesting that you grow cereals. Can you grow all you need for a full year? I have tried corn (Zea mays) but it isn't very productive. Too few plants I suppose. I have also tried one plant of the following crops: sweet potatoes (Ipomoea batatas). They did grow well but only small tubers. The best so far is oca (Oxalis tuberosa), one plant gave a lot of small corms. I also have tried yacon (Smallanthus sonchifolius) but haven't harvested it yet.

Will be interesting to follow your work with garden worthy plants. I let the nature select the plants for me! I make no deliberate crosses though.

Robert:
Hello Trond,

Thank you for the interesting climatic report. I am always interested in this type of information. Jasmin finds these things fascinating too. We both enjoy great curiosity and desire to learn.

Here in our part of California climatic conditions are grim, or flat out scary! Jasmin thinks crazy scary. Yesterday’s (28 November) high temperature at 6,700 ft. (2,042 meters) was 60 F (15.6 C). This was a new record high temperature for this site. The old record was 55 F (12.8 C) set in 2017. For the month, average temperatures are running 3.87 F (2.15 C) above average. Year to date, the average temperature is 1.470 C above the baseline starting point. There is no snow, well a trace that amounts to 0.28% of average to date.

At the Placerville property 1,500 feet (457 meters), the situation is not much better. To date, the average temperature for this November is 2.67 F (1.48 C) above average. Year to date, the average temperature is running 1.434 C above average. There has been only one month with below average temperatures since the beginning of 2021. Over the last few years, the rate at which the average annual temperature has been increasing is accelerating dramatically. Considering my temperature data sets have over 40 years of daily-recorded temperature readings, the temperate rate change represents a very significant acceleration.

To day, 29 November – looks like it will be much warmer than yesterday. Many record daily high temperatures will likely be broken today.

In summary:

> Over the past 150 plus years, our average annual precipitation totals have been dropping dramatically. Drought seems to be the new normal.

> Our average annual temperature has increased ~ 1.50 C in the last 45 years. The rate of temperature increase is accelerating.

There is no sign that these trends are going to reverse themselves. These are the conditions under which we garden. 

Jasmin’s attitude is what she calls worried-practical: If we just worry, the weather is not going to change. So, we may as well feel thankful for each day, and do the best we can. We plan breeding projects, and garden knowing some things will live and some will die. It is not about preserving beloved plants at all costs, to see them slowly demise and die anyway. We give things a chance, but when the inevitable death throes appear, we no longer are tormented by grief and what-did-we-do-wrongs. Yes, we investigate and learn, but we move on much faster than in the past. There will always be factors we cannot discover, and we are more accepting of the unknowable.
 
Food security interests Jasmin a great deal. When she was young, the family experienced great poverty and hardship, to the extent she experienced hunger not just a great deal, but regularly. As a child, she would will herself to not be hungry, to not be a burden. She sees this formative thinking as a blessing and asset now, because there is the deep appreciation for food and food security that is on a level most people around do not perceive or feel gratitude for. So much is taken for granted when one has, has abundantly, with easy access. 

This way of seeing is not associated with America. Sadly, many do not think this reality is even in America, then or now. Some have outright said my wife never experienced hunger, and was a liar. When her mother lived, her mother would correct them and verify their truth. Yes, it wasn’t the extreme poverty and hunger of war-time and post-war Europe, especially if one was a prisoner-slave in the Nazi camps, nevermind if one was a Jew in the work camps [“Extermination through work” is how it was called]. Still, hunger was something she experienced that I never did.

I grew up with abundance, and waste of food because there was so much. My childhood reality is so far from my wife’s. Nonetheless, we share a garden vision.  We see the climate change, and the impact of COVID, and have decided to blend our garden experiments into a fusion of ornamental and vegetable breeding for resiliency. It pushes my knowledge in a way just experimenting with ornamentals does not. I find areas of crossover, where skills I develop in ornamentals or foods serve the other. Facing climate challenges, and the plant diseases that thrive in such variable conditions, is deeply rewarding.

Once upon a time, I could not imagine thriving on such a small plot; however, I am grateful I do not have the space now. It challenges me to focus, to prioritize, and to let go of projects: With limited space, one cannot keep everything, and it cannot sit around turning into a dump pile from inattention. I probably have more messes than desirable, and Jasmin is kind enough not to gnaw at me about these things.   

Hoy:
Robert,

Thank you for your report. It is interesting to read albeit somewhat depressing. But I am optimistic though and hope the worst scenarios don't come true.

I can't understand why some people should think Jasmin is lying about what she experienced as young. It is a sad truth that many families experienced poverty and hunger even in "rich" countries like US and Norway. Some do even today. I hope though for a better future for everybody although I am less optimistic regarding this issue than the climate. But the two are clearly connected.

We have had snow lying on the ground and snowy weather for several days now. Can't remember we have had anything similar in at least 20 years!

Robert:
I have started my analysis of the November data from my remote weather monitoring sites located at various elevations from the foothills to the crest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in El Dorado County.

First, I wish to correct an oversight in a previous posting. We have actually experienced two months with below average temperatures at the Placerville property in 2021: March 2021 was 2.16 F (1.20 C) below average and October 2021 was 2.02 F (1.12 C) below average. Except for slightly above average temperatures in February 2021, all the other months experienced much above average temperature or record high average temperatures. To date, 2021 has been extremely warm.

I routinely log data at one 6,700 feet (2,042 meters) site in the Crystal Range of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. During the month of November 2021 this site experienced a new record average high temperature of 42.00 F (5.56 C). Six new daily high temperature records were broken, with one additional date that tied the record. Two new daily high low temperature records were broken, with one additional tie. No daily low temperature records were broken. Although there was some snow on the ground at the beginning of November, for much of the month there was no snow on the ground. Currently, there is no snow on the ground in the Crystal Range except traces on north facing slopes at the highest elevations.

I like to quantify my climatic reports from our region: Plants and plant communities respond to both the internal variability of climate, and the long-term climatic changes taking place. This is true for both managed (our gardens, agriculture) and unmanaged (wild places) locations. Now more than ever, there is a need to adjust our gardening practices and the plants we select to grow in our gardens to the volatile climatic circumstances. Altering gardening practices can help plants adjust to erratic weather patterns and extremes. Growing new species can help us better understand the range of tolerance a species might have to many environmental variables. Through observation, new selections of species can be made that are better adapted to our changing garden circumstances. This also applies to new hybrids, for those interested in this method of plant selection. There are many challenges, but also opportunities for those who enjoy gardening.

Today it is quite foggy, however the record-breaking heat continues above the inversion layer.



Germination is taking place with many of the recently sown California native annual species.



The tiny seeds of Erythranthe guttata and E. bicolor germinate well in the small soil blocks.



Layia platyglossa is also quite to germinate.

Other species take more time to germinate. Some species may need more vernalization than they can currently receive during our Sacramento winters. 40 years ago cold frosty winters were normal. Not now. It is a difficult decision to make – do I refrigerate the seeds so they receive adequate stratification or do I keep them in place and select for plants that produce seed that requires less vernalization to germinate. With plenty of seed I could do both. With limited seed additional stratification is likely the best choice until I have a large inventory of seed to draw from. With our changing climate all sorts of new choices need to be made.

Hoy:
This is the temperature deviasjon in Norway from the 1961-1990 average:

https://www.met.no/vaer-og-klima/klima-siste-150-ar/_/image/82d60ee8-e86f-4c90-b491-b72861602c95:9e4a7abec3d45a9957f89ca78dd9bb1786ab9d50/width-768/TAMA_G0_0.svg


And this is the precipitation deviation for the same period.

https://www.met.no/vaer-og-klima/klima-siste-150-ar/_/image/519c98ef-0220-408a-a39d-a9721b4fc5c9:f0b81e0bf3af8ba6bc7a18cdef4a114190652eb5/width-768/RRA_G0_0.svg

It is getting warmer and wetter.

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